A Great Quake Coming

Everyone who lives in San Francisco knows that earthquakes are common in the Bay Area-and they can be devastating．In 1906，for example，a major quake destroyed about 28,000 buildings and killed hundreds，perhaps thousands of people．Residents now wonder when the next“Big One”will strike．It’s bound to happen someday．At least seven active fault(断层)lines run through the San Francisco area． Faults are places where pieces of Earth’s crust(地壳)slide past each other．When these pieces slip，the ground shakes．
To prepare for that day，scientists are using new techniques to reyze the 1906 earthquake and predict how bad the damage might be when the next one happens．
One new finding about the 1906 quake is that the San Andreas Fault split apart faster than scientists had assumed at the time．During small earthquakes，faults rupture(断裂)at about 2.7 kilometers per second．During bigger quakes，however，ruptures can happen at rates faster than 3.5 kilometers per second．
At such high speeds，massive amounts of pressure build up，generating underground waves that can cause more damage than the quake itself．Lucky for San Francisco，these pressure pulses(脉冲)traveled away from the city during the 1906 ．As bad as the damage was，it could have been far worse．
Looking ahead，scientists are trying to predict when the next major quake will occur．Records show that earthquakes were common before 1906．Since then，the area has been relatively quiet．Patterns in the data，however，suggest that the probability of a major earthquake striking the Bay Area before 2032 is at least 62 percent．
New buildings in San Francisco are quite safe in case of future quakes．Still，more than 84 percent of the city’s buildings are old and weak．yses suggest that another massive earthquake would cause extensive damage．
People who live there today tend to feel safe because San Francisco has remained pretty quiet for a while．According to the new research，however，it’s not a matter of“if”the Big One will hit．It’s just a matter of when．
A Great Quake ComingA major earthquake striking San Francisco someday is inevitable．