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Who ’ s Afraid of Cheap Oil? The Economist 《经济学人》 Print edition | Middle East and Africa J a n 22, 201 6 ALONG with bank runs and market crashes, oil shocks have rare power to set monsters loose. Starting with the Arab oil embargo of 1973, people have learnt that sudden surges in the price of oil cause economic havoc. Conversely, when the price slumps because of a glut, as in 1986, it has done the world a power of good. In the past 18 months the price has fallen by 75%, from $110 a barrel to below $27. Yet this time the benefits are less certain. The lower the better, you might say. Look at how cheap oil has boosted importers, from Europe to South Asia. The euro area ’ s oil-import bill has fallen by 2% of GDP since mid-2014. Yet the latest lurch down is also a source of anxiety. Collapsing revenues could bring political instability to fragile parts of the world, such as Venezuela and the Gulf, and fuel rivalries in the Middle East. Cheap oil has a green lining, as it drags down the global price of natural gas, which crowds out coal, a dirtier fuel. But in the long run, cheap fossil fuels reduce the incentive to act on climate change.In the past cheap oil has buoyed the world economy because consumers spend much more out of one extra dollar in their pocket than producers do. Today that reckoning is less straightforward than it was. Cheap oil also hurts demand in more important ways. When crude was over $100 a barrel it made sense to spend on exploration in out-of-the-way provinces, such as the Arctic, west Africa.As prices have tumbled, so has investment. Projects worth $380 billion have been put on hold. In America spending on fixed assets in the oil industry has fallen by half from its peak. The fall in investment and asset prices is all the more harmful because it is so rapid. As oil collapses against the backdrop of a fragile world economy, it could trigger defaults. The possible financial spillovers are hard to assess. Other oil producers are prone to a similar, if milder, cycle of weaker growth, a falling currency, imported inflation and tighter monetary policy. There are strains in rich countries, too. Yields on corporate high-yield bonds have jumped from about 6.5% in mid-2015 to 9.7% today. Investors ’ aversion spread quickly from energy firms to all borrowers. With bears stalking equity markets, global indices are plumbing 30-month lows. Central bankers in rich countries worry that persistent low inflation will feed expectations of static or falling prices — in effect, raising real interest rates. Policymakers ’ ability to respond is constrained because rates, close to zero, cannot be cut much more. The oil-price drop creates vast numbers of winners in India and China. It gives oil-dependent economies like Saudi Arabia and Venezuela an urgent reason to embrace reform. It offers oil importers, like South Korea, a chance to tear up wasteful energy subsidies — or boost inflation and curb deficits by raising taxes. You might think that there could be no better time for a boost. In fact, the world could yet be laid low by an oil monster on the prowl.

题目标签:学人经济学
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【单选题】华尔街日报一个专栏曾经发表了这样一个观点:如果对中国输美纺织品征收关税,对美国消费者是有利的原因是:关税导致纺织品价格上升,价格上升促使美国消费者减少购买,从而导致纺织品价格再下降,因此对美国消费者有利这个逻辑显然荒谬那么它错在哪里呢?理论开始显示它威力:人们根据经济学理论提出了各种批评,指出其中的漏洞请问下面哪些批评说法本身也是错的?()

A.
消费者减少购买导致的价格下降程度不可能超过关税导致的价格上升程度
B.
华尔街日报的评论混淆了需求的变动与需求量的变动:关税导致供给减少,然后引起均衡价格上升,但是均衡价格上升引导需求量(不是需求)减少到新的均衡点,至此就稳定下来
C.
华尔街日报的评论混淆了需求的变动与需求量的变动:价格以外的因素影响需求的变化,这种变化会带来价格变化,但是(因关税而带来的)价格上涨带来的是需求量的减少,需求量的减少不会反过来影响价格
D.
关税导致的价格上升已经是一个均衡,此时价格上升和由此引起的需求量减少已经达到均衡,因此不再改变

【多选题】经济学上的投资指的是

A.
企业增加一笔存货
B.
购买住宅
C.
企业购买机器设备
D.
购买普通股股票

【多选题】宏观经济学的目标是()

A.
经济增长
B.
充分就业
C.
物价稳定
D.
国际收支平衡

【单选题】经济学测量快乐的方法是()

A.
效用和福利测量
B.
主观幸福感测量
C.
生活质量和满意度测量

【单选题】经济学中的理性人是指

A.
自私自利的经济主体
B.
市场经济中的经济主体
C.
在既定约束下追求利益最大化的经济主体
D.
从事经济活动的主体

【单选题】工程经济学核心内容是

A.
寻找技术方案的最佳经济效果
B.
研究具体的项目
C.
研究技术理论
D.
研究影响工程项目的经济效果因素