D Is Technology Moving Too Fast? Differing fundamentally from the prior technologies such as telephone, television and automobile, which are better known as lock-in, the new technologies—computers, biotechnology and nanotech ( 纳米技术 )—are self-accelerating. This means that the products of their own processes enable them to develop even more rapidly. Since they drive almost whole sectors of society, creating unstable, unpredictable and unreliable conditions, there is a growing public concern that perhaps what civilization needs is a NOT-SO-FAST button. Supporters of technological determinism make a strong case for letting self-accelerating technologies follow their own life cycle. Rapid development in computer technology, they point out, has separated robotics and the Internet—to the great benefit of industry and human communications. Besides, it isn’t so easy for a free society to put the brakes on technology. Even if one country decided to abandon the next technological revolution, another country would gladly take it up. However, there are comforting situations in which technology may brake itself. In the aging population of the developed world, many people are already tired of trying to keep up with the latest cool new tech. Youth-driven tech acceleration could be interpreted as youthful stupidity—short-sighted and short-lived. The market for change could dry up, and lock-in might again become the norm. Stress and great tiredness make powerful decelerators. Change that is too rapid can be deeply divisive. If only elite ( 精英 ) can keep up, the rest of us will grow increasingly puzzled about how the world works. We can understand natural biology, complex as it is, because it holds still. But how will we ever be able to understand quantum computing ( 量子计算 ) or nanotechnology if its complexity keeps accelerating away from us? Constant technological revolution makes planning difficult, and a society that stops planning for the future is likely to become a fragile society. It could experience violent economic unrest. It could slip into wars fought with cruel new weapons. Its widespread new technologies could fail in massive or horrible ways. All these constant, worrying small failures could weaken the whole social progress. With so many powerful forces in play, technology could hyper-accelerate to the stars with astonishing rapidity, or it could stop completely. My expectation is that it will do both, with various technologies proceeding at various rates. The new technologies may be self-accelerating, but they are not self-determining. They are the result of ever renegotiated agreement with society. Because they are so powerful, their paths may undergo wild swings, but I think the trend will be toward the dynamic middle: much slower than the optimists expect, much faster than the pessimists think humanity can bear.