下列各 Instinctively, the first thing we want to know about a disease is whether it is going to kill us. Twenty-five years ago, tiffs was the only question about we couJd anwer with any certainty; now, it is the only question we really camaot answer well at all. By now, those of us in the business long term have cared for thousands of patients. No one with that kind of personal experience can doubt for a moment the deadly potential of H. I. V. or the life-saving capabilities of the drugs developed against it. But there are also now hreds of footnotes and exceptions and modifications to those two facts that make the big picture ever murkier (扑朔迷离). We have patients scattered at every possible point: men and women who cruise on their medications with no problems at all, and those who never become stable on them and die of ; those who refuse them until it is too late, and those who never need them at all; those who leave far behind only to die from lung cancer or breast cancer or liver failure, and those few who are killed by the medications themelves. So, when we welcome a new patient into our world, one whose fated place in this world is still unclear, and that patient asks us, as most do, whether this illness is going to kill him or not, it often takes a bit of mental stammering (口吃 ) before we hazard an answer,Now, a complete rundown of all the news from the front would take hours. The statistics change almost; hourly as new treatments appear. It is all too cold, too mathematical, too scary to dump on the head of a sick, frightened person. So we simplify. 'We have good treatments now, we say. 'You should do fine. ' Once, not so long ago, we were working in another universe.Now we have simply rejoined the carnival ( 嘉年华) of modern medicine, noisy and encouraging, confusing and contradictory, fueled by the eternal balancing of benefits and risks. You can.win big, and why shouldnt you, with the usual fall-safe combination of luck and money. You have our very best hopes, so step right up: we sell big miracles but, offer no guarantees. What does the author say about ?